A possible El Niño in the 2026-27 season presents risks for South Africa's agriculture

Early projections suggest that the La Niña weather phenomenon, which brought above-normal rainfall across the summer crop-growing areas of South Africa and much of Southern Africa, leading to higher crop yields, has ended.

What may follow in the 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in October 2026, presents some risks. The latest projections from the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggest that we are transitioning into an El Niño in late 2026 and through 2027.

During such weather events, South Africa and the rest of Southern Africa typically receive below-average rainfall.

In extreme cases, an El Niño brings a harsh drought. The impact of such drought conditions on summer grains, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables, and grazing veld, amongst other activities, is typically severe.

A lot remains unknown about the potential severity of the 2026-27 El Niño at the moment. Still, the IRI estimates suggest a high likelihood of its occurrence, with a probability of over 70%.

In the past, IRI estimates have generally been accurate, so we are relying on them as we attempt to understand the season ahead. Farmers typically start their planting season in October.

Leading up to that, the SAWS will release monthly updates on how they expect weather conditions to shape the country over the coming months. What we will learn about the weather outlook in South Africa will generally apply to most countries in the Southern African region.

The El Niño weather event comes after two consecutive seasons of favourable production conditions in South Africa’s agriculture.

The country has enjoyed ample crop yields, for example, in the 2025-26 season, South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds production is estimated at 20.3 million tonnes, down 1% from the 2024-25 production season.

The 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds were the second-largest on record. Therefore, the 2025-26 is still very strong despite the slight decline from a year earlier. This production figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.

We have also seen excellent harvests across various fruits and vegetables, primarily supported by La Niña-induced rains during the 2025-26 summer season and the previous season.

Depending on how severe the 2026-27 El Niño weather event is and how farmers adjust their planting areas, it is reasonable to expect a decline in the harvest compared to during La Niña rains. If we consider maize as an indicator of the impact of droughts on agriculture, during the 2023-24 season, when a mild mid-summer drought occurred, South Africa’s maize harvest fell by 22% from the previous season to 12.9 million tonnes.

In the current 2025-26 favourable agricultural season, we expect a maize harvest of 16.5 million tonnes, which provides a perspective of how significant that decline was. In other severe droughts in 2017-18 and 2018-19, South Africa’s maize crop fell to an average of 11.8 million tonnes.

The notable decline and one of the most memorable droughts occurred in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, and South Africa’s maize harvest in that period fell to around 8.9 million tonnes on average. South Africa’s annual maize consumption is about 12.0 million tonnes, and a smaller harvest meant the country had to import to supplement domestic supplies.

Indeed, the situation in 2026-27 would be different even if South Africa experiences a harsh season. There are ample maize supplies from the previous season, which would cover the domestic needs.

Moreover, soil moisture is slightly better following two seasons of excellent rains, which would provide much-needed support for seed germination during the planting season. The dams across the country are generally at healthy levels to support fruits and vegetables, which are 100% planted under irrigation, while field crops are roughly 20% under irrigation.

Still, these are early days, and more reliable data will be available in the coming months. But the early indications suggest that we are heading into a challenging summer season, rather than the period of abundance we have enjoyed in the past two seasons.

We will be keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East and fertilizer supplies/costs. An El Niño and a fertiliser price squeeze would be challenging for the farming sector.