Are goats replacing cattle in South Africa?
No! The FT is exaggerating things a bit.
I was not planning to put up another post today, but I received a Financial Times article from several friends asking if its thesis was correct. The article is titled "Why goats are replacing cows in Southern Africa."
While the FT’s article is titled “Southern Africa", it focuses on South Africa.
I thought it might be appropriate to post a brief reflection. In the article, Simon Kuper (a great writer and journalist I admire) shares his observations about his recent trip to South Africa's Limpopo province, where cattle is part of the culture – from lobola (bride price) to local cuisine.
What caught his attention, he argues, is that as he drove across Limpopo, he could not spot any large cattle herds that would signify its importance in this region. Instead, what he saw were goats in the various areas.
Numerous people he interviewed talked about the challenging environment of Limpopo and how they are now focused on goats rather than cattle. Kuper attributes this change to a broader climate change challenge, which I agree with, as frequent droughts weigh on livestock production. Another challenge of Limpopo, not mentioned in Kuper's article, is animal diseases, which are caused by border issues and proximity to the National Kruger Park, among other things.
But I want to highlight that the goats are not replacing cattle in South Africa. The chart below should help illustrate this point. Cattle remain "the only game in town", and South Africa's cattle herd is relatively stable after declining during the nationwide drought years -- the 2014-2017 period.
I also want to underscore that Limpopo was never as big in cattle production as you see in the Eastern Cape or KwaZulu-Natal for several reasons I won't delve into for now. The chart below illustrates the cattle production by region in South Africa. Therefore, concluding about South Africa's cattle herd based on Limpopo production is incorrect.
Indeed, when travelling in Limpopo, one will see more goats because it is the third-largest producer after the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal (as with cattle). But goats tend to graze in far-accessible areas.
Overall, South Africa's agricultural sector has thrived and doubled since 1994. The livestock industry—which includes cattle, sheep, goats, and pigs—and poultry account for 48% of the sector's gross value added.
Therefore, goats are not replacing cattle in South Africa. Still, Kuper's overall point about climate change's impact on agriculture is valid.