Banana wars in Southern Africa may be fruitless

Tanzania's attempt to start banana wars with South Africa is not an ideal path

Since last week, I have noticed posts on X, a social media platform, suggesting that South Africa has banned the import of agricultural products from Tanzania. These statements surprised me, so I contacted the authorities responsible for regulating the import of agricultural products into our country.

The message I received from them is that there is no such widespread ban on agricultural products from Tanzania to South Africa. The main issue, which is presented as a broad agricultural concern, appears to be the import of bananas from Tanzania into South Africa.

South Africa has not imported a notable volume of bananas from Tanzania in over two decades. To supplement domestic production, Mozambique is the major supplier of bananas to South Africa, accounting for 74% of the US$48 million in annual banana imports into the country. Trailing Mozambique is Eswatini, accounting for 19%. The Seychelles account for 4%, Zimbabwe accounts for 2%, and the remainder consists of small volumes from various countries in Southern Africa.

It is unclear whether Tanzania's marginal non-participation in the South African bananas market is due to phytosanitary restrictions or insufficient marketing of the product in South Africa to establish a customer base. I suspect it may be the latter, as both countries can resolve phytosanitary issues with deliberate cooperation.

This banana dispute has prompted Tanzania to threaten to block South African products if South Africa doesn't lift the restriction on their bananas. Now, consider the fact that I have just mentioned that Tanzanian bananas almost don't feature in our import basket. Thus, I believe Mr Hussein Bashe, the Tanzanian Minister of Agriculture, overreacted.

Adopting the logic of banning South African products would create complications, as both countries are part of the Southern African Development Community Free Trade Area. Any ban on products from a particular country would need to have some scientific justification and be temporary. This is, again, the very issue that makes me doubt the notion that South Africa is unjustly limiting banana imports, which have been almost nonexistent (in any significant volume) in the South African market for over two decades.

Still, I must emphasise that Tanzania is not a significant player in South Africa's agricultural sector. In the US$ 13.7 billion in South Africa’s agricultural exports, Tanzania accounted for approximately 1% (US$ 74.6 million).

Still, South Africa has an agricultural trade surplus against Tanzania. For example, in South Africa's agricultural imports of US$7,6 billion in 2024, Tanzania accounted for 0,4% (or roughly US$28 million). This minimal participation by Tanzania is understandable, as South Africa imports products that are not produced in large volumes in the region. These include wheat, rice, palm oil, poultry, and whiskies from the world market, all of which are not primarily produced by the African region.

South Africa is Tanzania’s 18^th-largest agricultural market, accounting for 1.4% of its US$ 2.4 billion worth of farm exports in 2023. Thus, it makes sense to seek to promote its agricultural products and engage with South Africa's Department of Agriculture on any scientific issues, rather than threatening to impose restrictions on South African agricultural exports.

Tanzania's main agricultural exports to South Africa are tobacco, tea, nuts, coffee, and ginger, not bananas. Thus, initiating trade friction over a hold-up on a product that is not a significant export to a country may not be ideal.

Another factor contributing to Tanzania’s limited participation in the South African agricultural market is that South Africa is a net exporter of agricultural products, with exports reaching US$13.7 billion in 2024.

Beyond the Tanzania banana issue, South Africa's current stance is to foster stronger regional agricultural trade and refrain from introducing restrictions.

South Africa also promotes collaboration in agriculture and the sharing of knowledge to enhance regional value chains. This is the same approach South Africa shared with Botswana when the country temporarily restricted the imports of South African vegetables and fruits.

Thus, I believe that the whole issue may result from inadequate communication and engagement rather than a deliberate attempt to restrict trade. Of course, serious phytosanitary barriers must be addressed before the products enter South Africa. Ultimately, banana wars in Southern Africa may be a fruitless endeavour.