Maize harvest is underway in SA
Farmers and farmworkers are hard at work in the fields
I suppose I should take a break from my rants about BRICS and look outside for productive work happening in rural South Africa currently. We are in a downturn period for several commodities, as it’s the winter season. But if you're travelling across South Africa in this chilly weather, you will notice that in most regions, farmers and farmworkers are still hard at work harvesting maize. This is somewhat unusual as by July, most areas of the country would have completed the maize harvest.
The season started late due to delayed summer rains, and when it finally rained, it was excessive in some regions and lasted into April, an unusual occurrence. As a result, the maize crop and harvest are roughly a month behind their typical schedule.
When the South African Grain Information Services (SAGIS) released the producer deliveries data last week, it showed that on June 27, South African farmers delivered 1.4 tonnes of the new season maize to commercial silos that week. This was the ninth weekly delivery for the new season, bringing the overall maize deliveries so far to 5.8 million tonnes.
If you compare this total volume with the overall volume delivered during the same period in the previous season, the total volume is down 24% due to the season's slow start. We are roughly a month behind schedule.
There is still a lot of work ahead. South Africa's 2024-25 maize harvest is estimated at 14.8 million tonnes, a 15% increase year-on-year, primarily due to expected annual yield improvements.
We are closely monitoring the quality, and so far, we have noticed challenges with white maize, while the quality of yellow maize is far better. Still, we will have a better judgement when the majority of the crop is in the silos.
The upside remains that we are net exporters of maize once again. The expected harvest of 14.8 million is well above South Africa's annual maize needs of approximately 12.0 million tonnes.
While the lower quality in some regions may present profitability issues for farmers, it doesn’t change the picture of sufficient grain supplies for the local market, and potentially moderating prices in the coming months for the grain component of the inflation basket.