Some rain in the western regions of South Africa would help boost crop conditions

The sunny weather of the past few weeks was essential so farmers could finish planting, but we need follow-up rain now.

I know a lot is happening on the trade policy front, especially with US President Trump recently imposing tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. I will probably say something about the implications of much of this on agriculture soon, but my preliminary thoughts are here.

For now, I want to comment on the summer crop conditions across South Africa, as this is such a tricky season.

At its start, we generally expected a recovery in agricultural production from the 2023-24 season, characterized by the drought caused by El Niño, which damaged summer crops. Indeed, various regions of South Africa received much-needed rains in October 2024, permitting the start of summer grain and oilseed planting and a recovery in the grazing veld.

But from November 2024, soon after some regions finished planting and before others could plant, South Africa struggled with intense heat, affecting crops and the grazing veld. Various areas of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and the Free State were amongst the most affected by the November heat.

Encouragingly, it started to rain in most regions of the country from mid-December 2024 to January 2025. The farmers were not deterred throughout this period of heavy rains and prolonged periods of heat. They continued to plant, upbeat about the prospects of La Niña rains and the moderation of various input costs – fertilizers and agrochemicals.

At the start of the season, we knew they intended to increase the area plantings for the 2024-25 summer grains. Indeed, on January 28, the Crop Estimates Committee confirmed that South African farmers likely planted 4,45 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season, up mildly by 0,3% from the previous season.

Some of this crop was planted outside the traditional optimal planting window because of the erratic weather conditions. South Africa's conventional optimal planting window for grains and oilseeds typically starts in mid-October for the country's eastern regions and continues through mid-November. For the western areas, it begins in mid-November and closes at the end of December.

However, this time around, some farmers planted until late January. The main risk of planting late is the possibility of frost damage later in the season.

Still, there have been many seasons where farmers planted crops at the start of January and went on to have a robust harvest spared of the frost damage.

Thus, I continue to believe that if South Africa is fortunate to be spared from frost, as we have seen in recent seasons, the prospects for a better harvest remain even for late plantings.

So far, it has been challenging to ascertain how many hectares of summer grains and oilseeds were planted on time and how many were planted late. The Crop Estimate Committee will update its figures monthly in the coming months, helping us better understand this.

Notably, the current 4,45 million hectares of preliminary planting data are tentative, given the possible late plantings that may be difficult to account for. The Crop Estimate Committee will release a better view of the actual area that farmers may have planted and the first summer crop production forecast on February 27.

The recent rains have also benefitted the grazing veld, which has recovered somewhat in various regions of South Africa.

As promising as this view may seem, we are not entirely out of the woods. As the map below illustrates, soil moisture is relatively low in parts of the North West, western Free State, and western regions of the Eastern Cape.

The Western Cape is a winter rainfall area, so soil moisture is expected to be low this time in the province until the start of the winter rains at the end of May.

These provinces require follow-up rains to improve crop conditions and support the livestock industry's grazing veld.

Fortunately, this week's weather forecast promises widespread showers across South Africa's summer crop-growing regions—see here. If these rains materialize, we will continue with this favourable agricultural path for the season.

Importantly, the forecasts for the coming weeks are also encouraging. We remain in a La Niña period until March 2025, possibly bringing the much-required rains for agriculture.