Uncertainty

For South African exporters to the U.S., the U.S. tariff approach remains uncertain going forward.

What we know currently is that the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled against the President’s action to impose higher tariffs on U.S. trading partners.

But the U.S. leadership has signalled that it would explore other legal avenues to maintain the higher tariffs. It remains unclear if such efforts will materialise.

We also know that the U.S. administration is floating the idea of imposing an additional 10% tariff in the U.S. for roughly 150 days, and it appears there may be some legal avenues for this 10% tariff. Our reading suggests this would be an addition to the existing tariffs, assuming they remain at current levels.

But if the 10% were a lower rate applied across the board, and the U.S. leadership were to concede to removing the higher tariffs, it would be beneficial for us in South Africa. We struggled with the 30% tariff, while our competitors in the U.S. market faced much lower tariffs.

In agriculture, the U.S. remains an important market for South Africa, accounting for about 4% of our exports. The main exported products include citrus, raisins, berries, ostrich products, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts.

Some South African exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs in 2025 and exported more volume than usual during the second quarter of the year. We saw some cooling in exports in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, at US$144 million. In the last quarter, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 39% to US$81 million.

From an annual perspective, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. in 2025 totalled US$504 million, down 3% from the previous year.

This slight annual decline doesn’t suggest that the 30% “Liberation Day tariffs” aren’t affecting the industry; we benefited from substantial exports in the second quarter. We believe that in 2026, we will be able to get a clearer picture of the impact of all these tariffs.

Still, we must underscore that the tariff approach going forward remains uncertain, and we are on a wait-and-see approach to the next steps of U.S. leadership in light of the Supreme Court announcements and the idea of 10% additional tariffs floating.

The technical question of whether the U.S. leadership would have to pay back the tariffs is also unclear at this time.

Taking a wait-and-see approach to decision-making about the path forward for these trade deals is probably an appropriate step for exporters of non-perishable products.